Several weeks ago Joshua Pearce at Clarion University in Pennsylvania released a study titled “ Thermodynamic limitations to nuclear energy deployment as a greenhouse gas mitigation technology .” In the study he stated... nuclear energy production would have to increase by 10.5% per year from 2010 to 2050 to both replace fossil-fuel-energy use and meet the future energy demands. This line, of course, made the headlines and has been picked up by several outlets and blogs . When looking into his calculations for this statement, he made one assumption error that overstated the above sentence by nearly a factor of three. Page 121, Section 4.1 of the study states: Richard Smalley pointed out that in 2004, the global economy consumed the equivalent of 220 million barrels of oil per day, which converted into electricity terms is the equivalent of 14.5 TeraWatts (TW), or 14,500,000 MegaWatts (MW) (2005). … With a nuclear plant having about 1000 MW (1 GW) of capacity, we would need 14,500...
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ESKOM just dumped a 2 unit EPR project in South Africa even with France offering to tender 85% of the cost of construction. Even this residual financial risk was to great to bear for the government owned utility.
In fact, new nukes run the risk of being the ultimate in toxic mortgages.
According to a Moody's assessment of the credit risk that wading back into this quagmire brings on will not be removed by socializing the up front costs for the builders. Moore may not believe in the conclusion of the Congressional Budget Office's concern of greater than 50% default rate on these loans, but he is wrong again to dismiss it as some figment of CBO's imagination projected into the future. If you read it, the conclusion is based on the very real product of this industry's financial history and the fact that nobody knows just how high the cost of construction will soar. Even this 2003 assessment was using $2.5 billion for an 1000 MWe unit. The projected price tag is now far far and away from that guesstimate.
Moore's gets it wrong again to blame the abandonment of construction in the 1970's on politics. It was the financial collapse, pure and simple, as the result of the industry's gross failure to bring reactors online on budget and on schedule.
He stumbled through the question about the "nuclear exclusion clause" in homeowner insurance policies because the professional risk assessors won't risk to match the cost of an accident however remote the probabilities, hence the liability cap and leaving the taxpayer holding the tab.