For the report click here (pdf). It is also located on NEI's Nuclear Statistics webpage.Electricity prices increased last week due primarily to hot temperatures (see pages 1 & 2). Gas prices at the Henry Hub fell $0.09 to $5.60/MMBtu, falling again to the lowest price over the past year (see page 4).
In 2006, total U.S. natural gas consumption is projected to fall below 2005 levels by 1.7 percent then increase by 4.2 percent in 2007. Electric power sector consumption of coal is projected to grow by some 0.3 percent in 2006 and by another 1.6 percent in 2007. Power sector demand for coal continues to increase in response to high natural gas and oil prices. Electricity consumption is expected to increase by 0.6 percent in 2006 and by 1.4 percent in 2007. In 2005, residential electricity prices rose an estimated 5.1 percent nationally. In 2006, these prices are expected to increase by 7.8 percent and, in 2007, by another 2.9 percent (see page 8).
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Comments
Gas is expensive and volatile, coal is vulnerable to pollution and co2 concerns, wind is constrained by the limit to how quickly turbine manufacturers can ramp up and solar is still expensive. Nuclear has a long leadtime, and concerns about historical regulatory instability and cost overruns.
What's a utility to do?
Clearly, not until after January 20th, 2009.
Makes it hard to plan, with long lead times for coal and nuclear.
I would guess that this will tend to favor wind power and natural gas, simply because they can be installed quickly.