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Natural Gas Notes

By Eric McErlain
Here are a few related items on natural gas that caught my eye yesterday. I would have posted these earlier, but Blogger had an afternoon outage and I couldn't log on. First, here's a story from yesterday's Energy Daily by Jeff Beattie:
Bidding for incremental LNG supply in "very fierce, and it is only going to get more so," said James Straughan, manager of LNG supply and trading for BP Energy at the 11th annual LDC (local distributing company) Forum Northeast.

Overseas competition for supply is one reason why -- to the surprise of many market observers -- U.S. LNG terminals were operating at less than half capacity at times last year, even while U.S. gas markets were clearly craving gas and pushing prices to sustained, very high levels.
Meanwhile, back in the Gulf of Mexico:
Analyst Ole Slorer said GlobalSantaFe's announcement that it was sending four of its jackup rigs to Saudi Arabia, in a deal with Saudi Aramco, is part of an ongoing exodus to the Middle East that could cut shelf production in the Gulf of Mexico by as much as 20% over the next 18 months.

These kinds of announcements, Slorer told investors in a research note Monday, tighten the supply of rigs left to address the spot market in the Gulf of Mexico and could have "severe implications" on medium term natural gas production capacity.
Thanks to Red State for the Forbes pointer. And finally, here are some data points on estimated natural gas prices my boss culled from the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 6, 2006:
  • Expected 2006 average: $7.74 per thousand cubic feet (mcf)
  • Expected 2007 average: $8.81 per mcf
  • 2006 expected average of $7.74 is down $1.12 from 2005 average: "“The respite is expected to be short-lived. Concerns about potential future supply tightness and continuing pressure from high oil market prices will likely drive spot natural gas prices to just over $10.00 per mcf this coming December and January, "“ EIA says.
Here's hoping for another mild Winter.

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